Friday, April 30, 2010

Quick Overview

  • U.S. GDP rose 0.8% in Q1 and up 2.5% YoY

  • The University of Michigan's index of consumer sentiment rose from 69.5 to 72.2

  • The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index rose from 58.8 to 63.8 in April,

  • YoY Japan's consumer prices fell 1.1% in March

  • Japans unemployment rate rose from 4.9% to 5.0%

  • Spain's unemployment rate rose from 18.8% to 20.1%

  • Canada’s GDP rose 0.3% MoM and 1.8% YoY.

  • Danish shipping giant A.P.Møller-Maersk is ready to launch an offensive and invest in new acquisitions if suitable objects emerge in the wake of the financial crisis. According to the group's chairman of the board Michael Pram Rasmussen, Maersk has the financial strength to make acquisitions.

  • U.S. ethanol refiners are using more corn to make Ethanol. Production was 32% higher YoY.

  • Gold rose to a new high for the year amid concerns over euro zone debt problems.

Thursday, April 29, 2010

Quick Overview

  • DJ Louisiana Parish Pres: Spill To Hit Pass-a-Loutre Nature Reserve Late Thu

  • U.S. jobless claims fell 11,000 last week to 448,000.

  • Brazil's Ag Ministry, predicted that sugar production will be up 17% in 2010-2011

  • Germany's unemployment rate improved from 8.0% to 7.8% in April.

  • Japan's coastguard seeks to arrest environmental activist Paul Watson for disrupting whale hunts, reports say.

  • The US Coast Guard investigates reports that oil has begun washing ashore on the Gulf Coast

Wednesday, April 28, 2010

EMU domino fears as Spain downgraded, Germany drags feet on rescue Europe risks the biggest coordination failure in modern history,” said David Simmonds, research chief at RBS. The Berlin talks are as vague as ever. “We believe that markets will remain very sceptical.”

Quick Overview

  • The Mortgage Bankers Association's index of mortgage applications fell 2.9% last week.

  • China's Ag Ministry said that snow in northeastern China will delay planting by more than ten days.

  • The USDA have confirmed a sale of 115,000 MT of old crop US corn to China. US corn into China's ports will be important test with potentially significant much corn do they intend to purchase, as drought cripples their grain belt and demand rises on a robust economy."

  • YoY Australia's consumer price index rose 2.9% in Q1

  • YoY Japan's retail sales rose 4.7% in March

  • Republicans blocked progress on financial reform for a third day.

  • Firms are now able to post physical gold to CME Clearing to cover non-segregated Performance Bond requirements.

  • Spain became the latest European country to see its credit rating cut.

Olive Oil and Snake Oil
In an e-mail to his girlfriend, he called his “Frankenstein” creation “a product of pure intellectual masturbation, the type of thing which you invent telling yourself: ‘Well, what if we created a “thing,” which has no purpose, which is absolutely conceptual and highly theoretical and which nobody knows how to price?’ ”

Tuesday, April 27, 2010

Maastricht madhouse fuels EMU-wide contagion from Greece
If so, we will find out soon. Four professors will launch a legal challenge in early May at the Verfassungsgericht (high court). Should they secure an injunction, EMU may fly apart.

Quick Overview

  • The S&P/Case-Shiller index of home prices in twenty U.S. cities fell 0.9% MoM, but rose 0.6% YoY

  • IBM is increasing its dividend payout by 18%

  • Standard & Poor's downgraded its credit rating on Portugal.

  • Greece’s credit rating was cut three steps to junk by Standard and Poor

  • U,S. consumer confidence irose from 52.3 to 57.9 in April,

  • The Fed Richmond's regional index of manufacturing increased from +6 to +9 in April

Monday, April 26, 2010

'Serious deficit' could send cocoa to record highs And even growers prepared to invest in plantations, in Ivory Coast or elsewhere, may be tempted to switch to rubber, a crop which can provide year-round income, is less prone to disease and whose price have also soared.
Brain-like computing on an organic molecular layer
The monolayer has intelligence; it can solve many problems on the same grid.
CHINA is expected to become a dominant force in the world animal feed market. Pork consumption has doubled in the past ten years.
Compound feed fed to pigs currently accounts for only about 40 million tonnes, but this could rise to about 180 million tonnes as the feeding of swill is phased out under a "safe meat" policy. Only 40% of all Chinese meat currently complies with this "safe meat" policy, this is expected to reach 80% by 2015.

Friday, April 23, 2010

English will be the official language of the European Union:
Latest news:

The European Commission has just announced an agreement whereby English will be the official language of the European Union rather than German, which was the other possibility.
As part of the negotiations, the British Government conceded that English spelling had some room for improvement and has accepted a 5- year phase-in plan that would become known as 'Euro-English'.

In the first year, 's' will replace the soft 'c'. Sertainly, this will make the sivil servants jump with joy. The hard 'c' will be dropped in favour of 'k'. This should klear up konfusion, and keyboards kan have one less letter. There will be growing publik enthusiasm in the sekond year when the troublesome 'ph' will be replaced with 'f'. Thi s will make words like fotograf 20% shorter.

In the 3rd year, publik akseptanse of the new spelling kan be expekted to reach the stage where more komplikated changes are possible.
Governments will enkourage the removal of double letters which have always ben a deterent to akurate speling.

Also, al wil agre that the horibl mes of the silent 'e' in the languag is disgrasful and it should go away.
By the 4th yer people wil be reseptiv to steps such as
replasing 'th' with 'z' and 'w' with 'v'.

During ze fifz yer, ze unesesary 'o' kan be dropd from vords kontaining 'ou' and after ziz fifz yer, ve vil hav a reil sensibl riten styl.

Zer vil be no mor trubl or difikultis and evrivun vil find it ezi tu understand ech oza. Ze drem of a united urop vil finali kum tru.

Und efter ze fifz yer, ve vil al be speking German like zey vunted in ze forst plas.

If zis mad you smil, pleas pas on to oza pepl.

Quick Overview

  • Boosted by a soon-to-expire tax break, low mortgage rates and favorable weather, sales of U.S. new homes surged 27% in March and up 23.8% YoY

  • Customs authorities said China's exports rose 24.3% in March to US$112.1 billion from the same month a year earlier, while imports soared 66% YoY $119.3 billion. Foreign trade rose 44.1% to $617.85 billion.

  • The U.S. Commerce Department said that durable goods orders fell 1.3% in March. Excluding transportation, orders rose 2.8%

  • U.K. GDP rose 0.2% in Q1 and fell 0 .3% YoY

  • Canada’s consumer price index rose 1.4%
    Canada’s retail sales rose 0 .5% in February

  • EU industrial new orders rose 1.1% in February and 12.7% YoY

  • The USDA said that, as of March 31st, there were 510.5 million pounds of frozen pork in storage, down 14% YoY

  • The USDA said that 2.21 billion pounds of beef were produced in March, up 3% YoY

  • The USDA said pork production totaled 2.04 billion pounds, up 4% YoY

Thursday, April 22, 2010

Fitch warns of debt 'shock' for Japan
The Fitch Report comes two days after the IMF warned that the global banking crisis has mutated into a sovereign debt crisis that risks setting off a second phase of economic turmoil.

Quick Overview

  • U.S. jobless claims fell 24,000 last week to 456,000,

  • Canada’s leading indicators rose 1.0% in March

  • Manufacturing and services in the Euro area rose from 55.9 to 57.3

  • YoY U.K. Retail sales rose 2.2% in March.

  • The International Grains Council (IGC) sees wheat carryout at the end of 2010/11 at a nine year high of 199 MMT. The increase, despite lower production and higher usage, is due to the 30 MMT increase in opening stocks left over from bumper production in 2008/09.
    Corn ending stocks on the other hand are seen falling from 148 MMt to 140 MMT at the end of 2010/11.

  • China's copper imports rose by 53% in March

  • Greek debt fears continue to shake world markets

Wednesday, April 21, 2010

Quick Overview

  • The U.S. Mortgage Bankers Association's index of mortgage applications increased 13.6% last week.

  • The U.S. Department of Energy said:
    Supplies of crude oil rose 1.9 million barrels last week to 355.9 million barrels.
    Supplies of gasoline rose 3.6 million barrels
    Supplies of heating oil rose 600,000 barrels.
    Refinery use increased from 85.6% to 85.9% of capacity
    Gasoline demand rose 2.7%
    Distillate demand fell 0.1%
Solar Superstorm
Scientists are finally beginning to properly understand a historic solar storm in 1859. One day, the storm, which was the most potent disruption of Earth's ionosphere in recorded history could happen again

An Eruption of Reality
But beyond a certain level, connectivity becomes a hazard. The longer and more complex the lines of communication and the more dependent we become on production and business elsewhere, the greater the potential for disruption. This is one of the lessons of the banking crisis. Impoverished mortagage defaulters in the United States - the butterfly’s wing over the Atlantic - almost broke the global economy. If the Eyjafjallajoekull volcano - by no means a monster - keeps retching it could, in these fragile times, produce the same effect.

We have several such vulnerabilities. The most catastrophic would be an unexpected coronal mass ejection - a solar storm - which causes a surge of direct current down our electricity grids, taking out the transformers. It could happen in seconds; the damage and collapse would take years to reverse, if we ever recovered. We would soon become aware of our dependence on electricity: an asset which, like oxygen, we notice only when it fails.

Tuesday, April 20, 2010

Quick Overview

  • U.K. Consumer price index rose 3.4%

  • India raised its interest rate from 5.00% to 5.25%.

  • Goldman Sachs said that it earned $3.46 billion in Q1, up $1.8 billion YoY

  • India stopped exporting cotton to protect domestic supplies.

Monday, April 19, 2010

Germany warns of 'Lehman' crisis if Greece defaults
An administrator of China's foreign exchange fund SAFE – the world's top investor – was quoted by Asia's newswire IGM-FX warning that Greece may set off a chain reaction in the eurozone, and that some states with big debts may default.

Quick Overview

  • CitiBank reports its strongest results in three years as Q1 profit surges to $4.43 billion, or 15c a share.

  • The Conference Board's index of leading indicators rose 1.4% in March

  • Construction output in the EU fell 2.9% MoM and 10.2% YoY

  • July lumber closed up its $10 daily limit for the second day

  • The SEC split 3 to 2 along party lines to approve an enforcement action against Goldman Sachs.

  • PG announced an increase in the quarterly dividend from $0.44 to $0.4818 per share. P&G has been paying a dividend for 120 consecutive years since its incorporation in 1890.

Friday, April 16, 2010

SEC charges Goldman Sachs with fraud
The Wall Street investment bank, which has consistently denied working against its clients, is accused of creating a complex mortgage investment product which was designed to fail.

Thursday, April 15, 2010

How an Icelandic volcano helped spark the French Revolution
Then as now, there were more wide-ranging impacts. In Norway, the Netherlands, the British Isles, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, in North America and even Egypt, the Laki eruption had its consequences, as the haze of dust and sulphur particles thrown up by the volcano was carried over much of the northern hemisphere.

Quick Overview

  • U.S. jobless claims rose 24,000 last week to 484,000 -- more than expected.

  • U.S. industrial production was up 0.1% in March and up 4.0% YoY

  • The Philadelphia Fed's regional index of manufacturing increased from 18.9 to 20.2 in April.

  • The New York Fed's regional index of manufacturing increased from 22.86 to 31.86 in March -- better than expected.

Wednesday, April 14, 2010

Quick Overview

  • U.S. Retail sales jumped 1.6% -- the largest increase since November as consumers stepped up purchases of vehicles and wide range of goods. January sales were revised up to a 0.5% rise from 0.3%.

  • U.S. consumer price index was up 0.1% in March and up 2.3% YoY.
  • U.S. business sales were up 0.3% in February
  • U.S. Inventories rose 0 .5%

  • The Mortgage Bankers Association said that its index of mortgage applications fell 9.6% last week

  • Industrial production in the EU rose 0.7% MoM and up 3.5% YoY

  • Germany's cocoa grind saw its third consecutive year-on-year quarterly gain in the first three months of 2010, increasing by 10.31 percent, the association of German confectionery producers BDSI said on Tuesday.

  • The U.S. DOE said:
    Supplies of crude oil fell 2.2 million barrels 354.0 million barrels.
    Supplies of gasoline fell 1.1 million barrels
    Supplies of heating oil rose 500,000 barrels.
    Refinery use rose from 84.5% to 85.6% of capacity last week.
    Gasoline demand fell 2.8% YoY
    Distillate demand rose 0.4% YoY.

  • U.S. foreclosure filings jumped 7% in Q1 of 2010 from the previous quarter, market researcher RealtyTrac said.

  • China’s economic growth accelerated to 11.9 per cent in the first quarter

Tuesday, April 13, 2010

Quick Overview

  • (Dow Jones)--Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) Monday cut its three-month gold forecast by 8% and raised its copper price forecast by 4.6%, citing stronger copper demand across Asia, Europe and the U.S.

  • U.S. exports rose 0.2% in February while imports rose 1.7% . The result was $39.7 billion of net imports, up from $37.0 billion in January.

  • Canada’s exports rose 2.8% in February while imports rose 0.9%. The result was net exports of C$1.4 billion, up from $754 million in January.

  • YoY Japan’s producer prices fell 1.3% in March.

  • China announced that it will raise fuel prices by 4 to 4.5% tomorrow.

Sunday, April 11, 2010

The Greek people are being punished for Europe's errors
As I write, it appears that EU experts have agreed on a package of €20bn to €25bn at 350 points above the IMF tariff, or 5pc. This achieves nothing. Such wishful thinking has plagued the Greek/EMU crisis from the start. Simon Johnson, the IMF's former chief economist, said Greece needs €110bn to have any hope of pulling itself out of a tail-spin, given that the twin cures of default and devaluation are blocked. Even that may not work. Greece must squeeze a further 13pc of GDP from the budget to stabilise debt costs by 2012, and do so during a slump when every euro of tightening leads to €1.5 to €2 in lost demand. "The risk is of a viscious downward cycle," Mr Johnson wrote in the Huffington Post.

Greece Wins EU45 Billion Aid Pledge to Blunt Crisis
(Bloomberg) -- European governments offered debt- plagued Greece a rescue package worth as much as 45 billion euros ($61 billion) at below-market interest rates in a bid to stem its fiscal crisis and restore confidence in the euro.

Friday, April 09, 2010

Quick Overview

  • Oppenheimer analyst Scott Burk said the very large crude carrier day rate was about $59,000 Friday, up from about $20,000 to $30,000 a few weeks ago.

  • U.S. wholesale sales rose 0.8% MoM and 9.8% YoY

  • U.S. Inventories rose 0.6% MoM but fell 7.4% YoY

  • Canada's unemployment rate stayed at 8.2% in March,

  • The USDA's 2009-2010 U.S. ending stocks estimate of:
    Corn was increased from 1.799 to 1.899 billion bushels.
    Soybeans remained at 190 million bushels.
    Wheat was reduced from 1,001 to 950 million bushels.
    Sugar was increased from 1.075 to 1.218 million tons.
    Cotton was reduced from 3.20 to 3.00 million bales.

  • The USDA's 2009-2010 world ending stocks estimate of:
    Corn was increased from 140 to 144 million tons.
    Soybeans were increased from 61 to 63 million tons.
    Wheat was reduced from 197 to 196 million tons.
    Cotton was reduced slightly to 51 million tons.

  • The USDA expects beef production to be down 1% in 2010

  • The USDA expects pork production to be down 3% in 2010

  • The USDA estimate's Florida's 2009-2010 orange crop up from 131 to 132 million boxes and the projected juice yield was raised from 1.53 to 1.56 gallons per box

  • China ran its first monthly trade deficit in six years in March of $7.24 billion, down from a surplus of $7.61 billion in February. Customs official called the shortfall a blip.

Thursday, April 08, 2010

Quick Overview

  • A Nevada report said YoY revenue from gaming climbed nearly 14% in Feb.

  • U.S. Jobless claims rose 18,000 last week to 460,000, more than expected.

  • Japan's machinery orders fell 5.4% in February

  • Australia's unemployment rate stayed at 5.3% in March

  • EU retail sales in were unchanged in February and down 0.7% YoY

  • U.K.’s manufacturing index rose 1.3% in February and up 1.4% YoY

Wednesday, April 07, 2010

Quick Overview

  • The Mortgage Bankers Association's index of mortgage applications fell 11% last week.

  • Agriculture’s rise on rumors China will soon allow the Yuan to go up.

  • GDP in the EU rose 0 .1% in Q4 and fell 2.3% YoY

  • Services in the U.K. fell from 58.4 to 56.5 in March

  • The U.S. Energy Department said:
    Supplies of crude oil rose 2.0 million barrels last week to 356.2 million barrels.
    Supplies of gasoline fell 2.5 million barrels
    Supplies of heating oil rose 600,000 barrels.
    Refinery use rose from 82.6% to 84.5% of capacity.
    Gasoline demand rose 1.7% YoY
    Distillate demand fell 0.2% YoY

Monday, April 05, 2010

Updates resume April 7

Quick Overview

  • The Institute of Supply Management said services increased from 53.0 to 55.4 in March,

  • U.S. Pending home sales rose 8.2% MoM and up 17.3% YoY

Friday, April 02, 2010

Quick Overview

  • The US economy created 162,000 jobs last month as the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 9.75%

  • (FT) China has offered to accelerate free trade agreement talks with India in a bid to balance a burgeoning trade relationship between two of Asia’s largest economies

The IMF should impose default on Greece to end the charade
Real GDP has fallen by less, 12.6pc. The rest is the effect of deflation. But what matters most for debt is nominal GDP. The same debt load has to be financed from a nominal economy that has shrunk by almost a fifth. That is why deflation can be so deadly, as it was from 1930-1933.

Thursday, April 01, 2010

Quick Overview

  • U.S. jobless claims fell 6,000 last week to 439,000.

  • The ISM index of manufacturing rose from 56.5 to 59.6 in March -- stronger than expected.

  • U.S. Construction spending fell 1.3% MoM and down 12.8% YoY

  • Japan’s Tankan index rose from -25 to -14 in March

  • Manufacturing index in the U.K. rose from 56.5 to 57.2 in March

  • Manufacturing index in the Euro area rose from 54.2 to 56.6 in March

  • (Reuters) - A Manhattan federal judge threw out a class-action lawsuit accusing Moody's Investors Service and Standard & Poor's of defrauding investors about the safety of $63.4 billion of mortgage debt.

  • India's government on Thursday brought into force a new law that makes education free and compulsory for every child from age 6 to 14 --