Tuesday, December 01, 2009
Quick Overview
- The Institute of Supply Management's index of manufacturing fell from 55.7 to 53.6 in November
- The National Association of Realtors said its index of pending home sales rose 3.7% MoM. YoY the index is up 32%.
- U.S. construction output rose 1.6% YoY.
- MoM U.S. retail sales rose 5.2%. YoY retail sales rose 2.6%.
- EU unemployment was unchanged at 9.8% in October.
- The Bank of Japan decided at an unscheduled policy meeting to offer up to Y10,000bn in three-month low-interest loans to commercial banks.
- DryShips Inc., a provider of marine transportation services for drybulk cargoes, announced that its previously announced agreement to acquire 2 Panamax vessels has been terminated since no period employment could be secured in the agreed timeframe
- From January to October China's iron ore import rose 36.8 %. In the same phase, domestic iron ore output reached about 702.66 million tons, up 36.04 million tons.
- North Korea has revalued its currency by a factor of 100, causing chaos on the streets of Pyongyang.
- Private exporters reported to the USDA export sales of 116,000 MT of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2010/2011 marketing year.
- (Reuters Life!) - Reviled by the public and spurned in private, bankers have been looking for solace in adultery, according to a dating website for people seeking affairs.
- (Dow Jones)--The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency said Tuesday it would delay until mid-2010 a decision on whether to increase the amount of ethanol added to ordinary gasoline, putting off a controversial ruling with consequences for farm states and the oil and automobile industries.The delay was anticipated by traders.
- BNP Paribas Fortis forecasts world sugar demand to grow by 1% in 2009 versus the average rate of 2.66% a year over the past decade
- The default rate for commercial mortgages in the US climbed to a fresh 16-year high of 3.4%
- Australia's parliament rejected sweeping carbon-trade laws aimed at cutting greenhouse gases.
- Thirteen mills in India's key sugar-producing state of Uttar Pradesh have stopped cane crushing operations due to supply shortages.
state government official said Wednesday.
Monday, November 30, 2009
Quick Overview
- The Chicago Purchasing Managers' index rose from 54.2 to 56.1 in November
- Lumber is up its $10 daily limit
- Canada’s GDP rose 0.1% in Q3, but fell 3.2% YoY
- Japan’s industrial production rose 0.5% in October.
- EU consumer prices rose 0.6% MoM
- The USDA said:
- 79% of the corn crop was harvested. 21% or 2.7 bln bu of corn remain in the field; including 28% of IL, 22% of MN & NE, 60% of ND, 42% of SD, 33% of WI.
- 96% of the soybean crop was harvested. 133 million bushels of soybeans remain in the field.
- Australia raised interest rate by 0.25%
Sunday, November 29, 2009
Bundesbank fears relapse as German banks face €90bn fresh losses
The venerable bank said in its Stability Report that the world had narrowly averted a "virtually uncontrollable" collapse in the late summer of 2008. While the credit system has partly stabilised, the underlying problems "are still far from being overcome" and money markets are not yet functioning properly.
Quick Overview
- The central bank of the United Arab Emirates says it is setting up a facility to provide banks with extra liquidity. The Central bank is expected to announce it will guarantee Dubai World debt before stock markets open on Monday.
- The rush by retail investors into gold has forced the US government to suspend sales of the world’s most popular bullion coin, the American Eagle, after running out of inventories for the second time since August of 08.
- Bloomberg reported that Europe holds $87 billion of debt from the United Arab Emirates and roughly $50 billion of that is held by British banks. The Royal Bank of Scotland is said to have the biggest exposure to Dubai World, with $2.3 billion of its debt.
- Freight traffic on U.S. railroads reached its highest level so far this year
- Japan's unemployment rate improved from 5.3% to 5.1% in October
- Vietnam devalued its currency by 5.4 % and lifted interest rates by 1% to try and choke off inflation.
- According to the China gold association, Chinas gold demand may be more than 450 metric tons this year, up from 395.6 tons in 2008, and output may climb to 310 tons, compared with 282 tons a year earlier.
- Iran’s government said it would build 10 new uranium enrichment sites and look into enriching uranium at higher grade inside the country.
- The US military could have captured or killed Osama bin Laden in 2001 if it had launched a concerted attack on his hideout in Afghanistan, according to a report from the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.
- New high for World exchange copper stocks
Tuesday, November 24, 2009
Updates resume Nov. 29
Quick Overview
- U.S. GDP rose 0.7% in Q3, YoY GDP fell 2.5%.
- The Standard and Poor Case-Shiller index of home prices rose 0.3% in September.
- U.S. consumer confidence rose from 48.7 to 49.5
- Industrial new orders in the EU rose 1.7% MoM, but fell 16.4% YoY
- The International Sugar Organization is predicting world sugar production will exceed consumption by 0.75 million tons in 2010-2011. The 2009-2010 production deficit is forecast at 7.2 million tons.
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Monday, November 23, 2009
Quick Overview
- Spurred by a tax credits that lured first-time buyers, U.S. existing home sales rose 10.1% in October, and 23.5% YoY
- The National Association for Business Economists said that they expect U.S. GDP to be up 2.9% in 2010, up from their previous forecast of 2.6%.
- Canada’s retail sales rose 1.0% MoM
- There seems to have been a shift in attitude , from fearing a large South American soybean crop to needing one.
- Coca-Cola, the world's largest soft-drink maker, is planning to more than double its number of bottling plants in China within a decade, the Financial Times said.
Sunday, November 22, 2009
Quick Overview
- China's sugar imports in October rose sharply to 56,882metric tons, the General Administration of Customs said Monday. Last October, the country imported 13,911 tons of sugar. In the January-October period, sugar imports rose 42% to 1.01 million tons,Customs said.
- China's cotton imports in October rose 23% YoY to 118,580 metric tons, the General Administration of Customs said Monday. In the January-October period, cotton imports fell 36% to 1,196,644 tons.
- Manila Philippines: the usual (annual) rice shortfall is around 1.5 million tons, added to that is the typhoon damage of 850,000 tons, which means our rice imports (next year) will reach around 2.35 million tons," said NFA spokesperson Rex Estoperez
- The USDA said there were 11.134 million head of cattle on feed on November 1st, up 1.5% YoY. Placements in October rose 1%., marketing’s fell 3%.
- The USDA said there were 37.0 million pounds of frozen bellies in storage on October 31st, up 71% YoY. Frozen pork supplies totaled 520 million pounds, down 1% YoY.
- (FT)Microsoft has had discussions with News Corp over a plan that would involve the media company’s being paid to “de-index” its news websites from Google, setting the scene for a search engine battle that could offer a ray of light to the newspaper industry
Thursday, November 19, 2009
Quick Overview
- Growth and recovery are expected in 2010 in most world regions, but the upturn will be modest, the OECD says.
- U.S. jobless claims were unchanged last week at 505,000.
- U.S. delinquency rate on mortgage loans rose from 9.24% to a record high 9.64% Q3. The foreclosure rate rose from 4.30% to 4.47% in Q3. That makes one in seven homeowners either late on their payments or already in foreclosure.
- The Conference Board's index of leading indicators rose 0.3% in October.
- The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's regional index of manufacturing rose from 11.5 to 16.7 in November,
- Canada’s wholesale sales rose 0.2% MoM, but fell10.4% YoY
- Canada’s leading indicators rose 0.7% in October
- U.K. retail sales rose 3.0% YoY.
- The World Gold Council said gold demand totaled 800.3 tons in Q3, up 15% QoQ , but fell 34% YoY. YoY Mine production rose 6%.
- The U.S. dollar will remain the world's primary reserve currency for many years or decades, an International Monetary Fund official said on Thursday.
- The early start to the rainy season this year in Brazil has heightened concerns that Asian soybean rust could vex farmers more than usual. The first incident of the disease for the 2009-10 crop year was discovered Wednesday in Mato Grosso, Brazil's No. 1 soybean producing state.
- Dylan Grice at Societe General says the price at which the dollar would be fully backed by gold (as it was at the peak in the 1970s) is $6300
- The return of the resources boom was again confirmed by the news yesterday that the value of mining and energy projects under development in Australia had jumped 40% from April to October this year.
- (Spiegel)Global warming appears to have stalled. Climatologists are puzzled as to why average global temperatures have stopped rising over the last 10 years. Some attribute the trend to a lack of sunspots, while others explain it through ocean currents.
Wednesday, November 18, 2009
Quick Overview
- U.S. consumer price index rose 0.3% MoM and fell 0.2% YoY
- U.S. housing starts fell 10.6% MoM.
- YoY Canada’s consumer prices rose 0.1% in October
- EU construction output fell 1.1%
- Australia’s leading indicators rose 0.9% in September
- The U.S. Department of Energy said:
Supplies of crude oil fell 900,000 barrels to 336.8 million barrels.
Supplies of gasoline fell 1.7 million barrels
Supplies of heating oil rose 300,000 barrels.
Refinery use fell from 79.9% to 79.4% of capacity
Gasoline demand fell 0.4% YoY
Distillate demand fell 11.4% YoY
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Tuesday, November 17, 2009
Quick Overview
- U.S. producer price index rose 0.3% MoM, but fell 1.9% YoY
- U.S. Industrial production rose 0.1% in October.
- YoY U.K. consumer prices rose 1.5%
- EU exports rose 17% MoM, but fell 19% YoY
- Rumours of findings of significant fungal contamination in the US corn crop lifts the price of other livestock feeds, including soymeal and rapeseed.
- Argentina’s persistent drought has caused Oil World to lower their Soy production estimate by 2 MMT, now pegging 2009/10 output at 48 MMT, 5 MMT below the USDA's estimate.
If Nothing Else, Save Farming
According to farm scientists at Cornell University, cultivating one hectare of maize in the United States requires 40 litres of petrol and 75 litres of diesel(3). The amazing productivity of modern farm labour has been purchased at the cost of a dependency on oil. Unless farmers can change the way it’s grown, a permanent oil shock would price food out of the mouths of many of the world’s people. Any responsible government would be asking urgent questions about how long we have got.
Monday, November 16, 2009
Quick Overview
- The Fed is monitoring currency markets “closely” and will conduct policy in a way that will “help ensure that the dollar is strong”, Ben Bernanke said in rare comments on the US currency.
- U.S. retail sales rose 1.4% in October. Excluding autos sales rose 0.2%.
- The New York Federal Reserve's regional index of manufacturing fell from 34.57 to 23.51 in November.
- Canada's existing home sales rose 41% in October
- Canada’s manufacturing sales rose 1.4% in September
- Japan's GDP rose 1.2% in Q3, but fell 4.5% YoY
- YoY EU consumer prices rose 0.5% in October
- (Bloomberg)The Philippines, the world’s biggest rice buyer, issued its third tender for 2010 supplies after storms damaged crops and the country accelerates imports to secure shipments amid surging prices.. “We have to secure our supplies ahead of everybody else,” Romeo Jimenez, director of the authority, said in a phone interview from Manila today. “India will also be importing rice. Prices will rise.”
- White sugar tenders for the expired December futures contract were 5,520 lots, with Louis Dreyfus taking delivery of all the contracts.
Mayfly May Thwart $3 Billion in Coal Mined in U.S. Mountaintops Mountaintop mining in West Virginia, Kentucky, Virginia, Tennessee and parts of Pennsylvania and Ohio accounts for 6 percent of U.S. coal production. Half of U.S. electricity comes from burning coal.
China has now become the biggest risk to the world economy
It is fashionable to talk of America as the supplicant. That misreads the strategic balance. Washington can bring China to its knees at any time by shutting markets. There is no symmetry here. Any move by Beijing to liquidate its holdings of US Treasuries could be neutralized – in extremis – by capital controls. Well-armed sovereign states can do whatever they want.
Friday, November 13, 2009
Quick Overview
- The US trade deficit widened by $36.5bn -- to the largest amount in 10 years. The U.S. Census Bureau said that exports rose 2.9% in September to $132.0, billion while imports rose 5.8% to $168.4 billion.
- Plans to strip the Fed of its bank supervision powers were rebuffed by senior Obama administration officials.
- The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index fell from 70.6 to 66.0 in November,
- EU GDP rose 0.2% in Q3 and fell 4.3% YoY
- German GDP rose 0.7% in Q3
- France’s GDP rose 0.3% in Q3
- (FT) Two computer programmers from Bernard Madoff’s fraudulent investment operation were arrested on charges of falsifying Mr Madoff’s trading records to make them appear regular and above board
- Scientists who crashed two spacecraft into a crater on the moon said on Friday they found water in the dust they kicked up, just as they had hoped.
- News that funds manager Blackrock expects central banks to be net gold buyers in 2009 is contributing to gold's rise.
Thursday, November 12, 2009
Quick Overview
- U.S. jobless claims fell 12,000 last week to 502,000, less than expected.
- The U.S. Treasury sold $16 billion of 30-year T-bonds at a median yield of 4.39%. The bid to cover ratio was 2.26, the lowest since May.
- The U.S. ran a record federal budget deficit of $176.4 billion in October up from $155.5 billion deficit a year ago.
- EU industrial production rose 0.2% MoM but fell 12.1% YoY.
- Japan’s producer prices fell 6.7% YoY
- Canada’s new home prices rose 0.5% MoM, but fell 2.7% YoY.
- YoY factory output in India rose 9.1% in September
- The U.S. Department of Energy said:
Supplies of crude oil rose 1.8 million barrels to 337.7 million barrels.
Supplies of gasoline rose 2.5 million barrels
Supplies of heating oil rose 800,000 barrels.
Refinery use fell from 80.6% to 79.9%
Gasoline demand fell 1.0% YoY
Distillate demand fell 13.8% YoY
- Russian president calls on country to refocus its economy away from energy and heavy industry towards information technology, telecommunications and space
- The Treasury secretary, in Singapore at the APEC meeting, offered fresh reassurances that the administration was committed to bolster the dollar.
- China's raw coal output hit 270 million tons in October, climbing to the year's second highest peak
Wednesday, November 11, 2009
Quick Overview
- US Treasury secretary Geithner tells reporters in Japan he believes in the need to maintain a strong dollar and that the US is determined to get its budget deficit down
- Japan's machinery orders rose 10.5% in September, better than expected.
- The UK jobless total rose to 2.46 million in the three months to September, but the increase was the smallest since May 2008.
- Australian Employers unexpectedly added 24,500 jobs
Tuesday, November 10, 2009
Quick Overview
- The Association of Realtors said existing home sales rose 11.4% in Q3 and up 5.9% YoY.
- China's Industrial Production rose 16.1% YoY
- USDA's 2009-2010 U.S. ending stocks estimate of:
Corn was lowered from 1.672 to 1.625 billion bushels. (46 day supply)
Soybeans were raised from 230 to 270 million bushels.
Wheat was raised from 864 to 885 million bushels. (145 day supply)
Sugar was raised from 836,000 to 1,016,000 tons.
Cotton was lowered from 5.40 to 4.90 million bales.
- The USDA's 2009-2010 world ending stocks estimate of:
Corn was lowered from 136 to 132 million tons. (60 day supply)
Soybeans were raised from 55 to 57 million tons.
Wheat was raised from 187 to 188 million tons.
Cotton was reduced from 56 to 54 million bales.
- The USDA expects beef production to be down 3% in 2009 and down 1% in 2010.
- The USDA expects pork production to be down 1% in 2009 and down 3% in 2010..
- China's refined sugar production in October fell 17%. For the January-October period refined sugar output fell 13% YoY.
Monday, November 09, 2009
Quick Overview
- The IMF said the US dollar is "on the strong side".
- Policy makers from this weekend's G-20 meeting in Scotland assure investors that central banks are not yet ready to withdraw stimulus from the world's economy.
- Bloomberg said China's corn crop will be down 13% YoY
- Tropical Storm Ida is bringing more rain to the already-wet southeastern U.S.
- The Indian government intends to release 3 MMT of wheat to the domestic market. Is that the same 3 MMT that they were going to release two months ago?
- The Baltic Dry Index posted a sixth weekly advance as rates for smaller iron-ore transporters rose to the highest in more than a year.
Saturday, November 07, 2009
Unnatural disaster
..the balance works out at 96 per cent navigation, 3 per cent flood protection and 1 per cent environmental restoration.
Friday, November 06, 2009
Quick Overview
- US jobs data out worse than expected, with nonfarm payrolls up by 190,000 against expectations of 175,000 and unemployment rising from 9.8% last month to 10.2% now
- U.S. wholesale sales rose 0.7% MoM while inventories fell 0.9%.
- Canada’s unemployment rate rose from 8.4% to 8.6% in October
- The Reserve Bank of Australia estimates GDP will be up 1.75% in 2009 and up 3.25% in 2010.
- The US ag attachee cut to 13.2m tonnes the forecast for Chinas sugar output, representing a 9% cut on their initial estimate, and a 1.2% fall YoY.
Thursday, November 05, 2009
Quick Overview
- U.S. jobless claims fell 20,000 to 512,000, less than expected.
- YoY U.S. non-farm productivity rose 9.5% in Q3
- YoY U.S labor costs fell 3.6% in Q3
- The EU kept its interest rate unchanged at 1.0%
- EU retail sales fell 0.4% MoM and 2.5% YoY.
- Brazil's expects soybean production of 63 million tons in 2009-2010
- England kept its interest rate unchanged at 0.50%.
Wednesday, November 04, 2009
It is Japan we should be worrying about, not America
Simon Johnson, former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), told the US Congress last week that the debt path was out of control and raised "a real risk that Japan could end up in a major default".
Quick Overview
- The Federal Reserve took small steps in the direction of a more hawkish stance on rates, tweaking its guidance on future policy for the first time since March.
- The ADP employment report showed that 203,000 private sector jobs were lost in October. Although this was more than the 190,000 forecast, investors welcomed the fact it represented the smallest number since July 2008.
- The Institute of Supply Management's index of services fell from 50.9 to 50.6 in October
- The Mortgage Bankers Association said its index of mortgage applications rose 8%
- The World Bank expects GDP in China to be up 8.4% in 2009 and up 8.7% in 2010
- Services in the U.K. rose from 55.3 to 56.9 in October
- Services in the Euro zone rose from 52.3 to 52.6 in October
- Australia's retail sales fell 0.2% in September.
- The U.S. Department of Energy said:
Supplies of crude oil fell 4.0 million barrels.
Supplies of gasoline fell 300,000 barrels
Supplies of heating oil supplies fell 1.1 million barrels.
Refinery use fell from 81.8% to 80.6%
Gasoline demand was unchanged YoY
Distillate demand fell 14.8% YoY.
- Gold prices extended their record breaking run, pushing towards $1,100
- Ore demand pushes freight costs higher
- Informa estimates the US corn crop at 13.064 billion bushels with a yield of 164.8 bushels per acre
Informa estimates the US bean crop at 3.333 billion bushels with a bpa of 42.4.
The last USDA estimate, in Oct, was 13.018 billion corn with a 164.2 bpa and 3.250 billion beans with a 42.4 bpa.
Last month, Informa estimated the corn crop at 13.127 with a 164.7 bpa and the bean crop at 3.250 billion with a 44 bpa.
- (Bloomberg) -- Rice futures in Chicago rose to the highest price in almost 10 months on mounting concern that Indian inventories will trail demand, forcing the world’s second-largest producer to import grain.
Output in India has declined because of adverse weather, and the government plans to buy 26 million metric tons of the grain from farmers this year to bolster domestic stockpiles and avoid food shortages, said Dennis DeLaughter, a rice farmer and the owner of Progressive Farm Marketing in Edna, Texas.
“The government is trying to make sure they don’t have a panic on their hands, so they’re moving rice into the market early to avoid having a run on supplies,” DeLaughter said.
Tuesday, November 03, 2009
Quick Overview
- The Federal Reserve begins its two-day meeting today and is expected to keep the federal funds rate unchanged.
- U.S. Factory orders rose 0.9% in September, better than expected.
- Australia increased its interest rate from 3.25% to 3.50%, as expected.
- Gold has hit an all-time high of USD 1,085 after it was announced that India's central bank had bought 200 MT of the stuff from the IMF in deal worth USD6.7 billion. This appears to confirm that central banks are comfortable entering the market to hold gold at over USD 1,000/oz.
Monday, November 02, 2009
Quick Overview
- The ISM index of manufacturing rose from 52.6 to 55.7 in October.
- U.S. employment index rose from 46.2 to 53.1
- U.S. construction spending rose 0.8% MoM.
- Chinas manufacturing index rose from 55.0 to 55.4 in October -- the highest reading in 18 months.
- U.K.’s manufacturing index rose from 49.9 to 53.7 in October
- EU manufacturing rose from 49.3 to 50.7 in October
- Pending U.S. home sales, representing contracts signed for home purchases, rose 6.4 % MoM. YoY the pending sales index rose 12.4%
- Ford Motor Co. said Monday it earned a profit of $997 million in Q3, a $1.2 billion rebound from the Q3 a year ago.
Friday, October 30, 2009
Wilbur Ross Sees ‘Huge’ Commercial Real Estate Crash
U.S. commercial property sales are forecast to fall to the lowest in almost two decades as the industry endures its worst slump since the savings and loan crisis of the early 1990s, according to property research firm Real Capital Analytics Inc. The Moody’s/REAL Commercial Property Price Indices already have fallen almost 41 percent since October 2007, Moody’s Investors Service said Oct. 19.
Quick Overview
- The University of Michigan index of consumer sentiment fell to 70.6 from 73.5 in Sep.
- U.S. personal incomes fell 0.1% in September, spending fell 0 .5%.
- Japan's unemployment rate improved from 5.5% to 5.3% in September
- Canada’s GDP fell 0.1% in August and 4.0% YoY
- Unemployment rate in the EU rose from 9.1% to 9.2% in September
- Germany's retail sales fell 0.5% MoM and 3.9% YoY
- Japan's central bank said it would stop buying corporate debt in December, ending some of the emergency credit measures implemented earlier this year
- India, typically amongst the world's top three or four rice exporters, Friday issued a tender for import of 10,000 metric tons of rice.
Thursday, October 29, 2009
Central banks chill asset rally Teun Draaisma, Morgan Stanley's equity strategist, said investors should move with care as central banks awaken. A study of 19 "bear market" rallies over recent decades shows that bourses tend to tip over as the US Federal Reserve starts tightening. Equities fall back 25pc over the next 13 months on average. It is unlikely to be better this time.
Growth and jobs
At this rate, we wouldn’t reach anything that feels like full employment until well into the second Palin administration.
Quick Overview
- U.S. GDP rose 0.9% in Q3, YoY GDP fell 2.3%.
- US jobless claims fell 1,000 to 530,000.
- Japan's industrial output rose 1.4% in September
- Lumber closed up its $10 maximum daily limit
- China agreed to end the ban on imports of U.S. pork.
India May Import Rice, Fueling ‘Panic,’ IRRI Says
(Bloomberg) -- India, the world’s second-largest rice grower, may become a net importer for the first time in 21 years in 2010, potentially sparking the kind of “panic” that sent prices to records in 2008, a rice expert said.
Wednesday, October 28, 2009
Quick Overview
- U.S. durable goods orders rose 1.0% MoM, but fell 24.1% YoY.
- U.S. new home sales fell 3.6% MoM and 27% YoY.
- Australia's consumer prices rose 1.3% in Q3
- YoY Japan's retail sales fell 1.4% in September
- Norway raised its interest rate 0.25%.
- The U.S. will need to import as much as 1.2 million tons more sugar than the U.S. Department of Agriculture now plans on allowing into the country in fiscal year 2010, according to the Sweetener Users Association
- India is expected to import up to 3.5 million metric tons of rice in coming months, Dwight Roberts, president and chief executive of the U.S. Rice Producers Association sais
Tuesday, October 27, 2009
Rice Market ‘On Thin Ice’ as Record Prices May Return (Update1)
(Bloomberg) -- Rice prices may return to record levels as bad weather curbs output in major growers including India, a Philippine minister and the U.S. Rice Producers Association said.
Quick Overview
- U.S. consumer confidence fell from 53.4 to 47.4 in October
- The Richmond Federal Reserve's regional index of manufacturing fell from +14 to +7 in October
- The Standard and Poor's/Case-Shiller index of U.S. home prices in 20 cities rose 1.2% MoM, but fell 11.3% YoY. This is the fourth consecutive monthly increase.
- The eurozone reports the first YoY fall in bank lending to the private sector of 0.3% -- strengthening the case for the ECB to maintain its ultra-loose interest rate policy.
- India will extend the deadline for duty-free imports of the raw sugar by nine months to Dec. 31 2010
- (Bloomberg) -- The Philippines, the world’s biggest rice buyer, plans to bring forward imports for 2010 to beat other nations to the market before prices surge and ensure stockpiles aren’t drained, the National Food Authority said.
- India eliminates 70% import tax on some rice types
- “You can’t find a year in USDA’s data (which goes back to 1972) on corn harvest activity that is as slow as this year [20%complete]. Period. (CME)
Monday, October 26, 2009
Quick Overview
- South Korea’s GDP rose 2.6% in Q3 and 0 .6% YoY
- China’s copper imports totaled 282,828 tons in September, up 29%
Sunday, October 25, 2009
Food will never be so cheap again
The world's grain stocks have dropped from four to 2.6 months cover since 2000, despite two bumper harvests in North America. China's inventories are at a 30-year low. Asian rice stocks are near danger level.
Friday, October 23, 2009
U.S. Risks Japan-Like ‘Lost Decade’ on Stimulus Exit, Koo Says
“If you learn your lesson from the Japanese experience, you don’t remove your fiscal stimulus until private sector de- leveraging is over,” Koo, 55, chief economist at the research arm of Japan’s biggest brokerage, said in an interview at his Tokyo office last week. “When we see the private sector coming to borrow again, I’ll be the loudest person on earth arguing for fiscal reform. That’s the exit.”
Quick Overview
- The National Association of Realtors said U.S. existing home sales rose 9.4% in September
- U.K. GDP fell 0.4% in Q3 and 5.2% YoY
- EU industrial orders rose 1.2% MoM, but fell 22.3% YoY.
- Amazon and Microsoft reported better-than-expected results
- The USDA said pork production rose 1% YoY
- The USDA said beef production fell 2% YoY.
Thursday, October 22, 2009
Quick Overview
- U.S. jobless claims rose 11,000 last week to 531,000, more than expected.
- U.S. Index of leading indicators rose 1.0% in September
- U.S. home prices fell 0.3% MoM and down 3.6% YoY.
- Canada retail sales rose 0.8% MoM but fell 3.8% YoY
- U.K. Retail sales were unchanged MoM and up 2.1% YoY.
- YoY Japan's exports fell 30.7% in September.
- The Swedish central bank kept interest rates at .25%. The bank indicated they would keep rates near zero in the future
- U.S. steel exports rose 13.1% MoM
- A tape containing the personal data of 51,000 UK customers has been lost by insurance company Zurich, the company confirms
Sharia Banking Comes to Germany
The underlying concept of the Islamic banking business is the Prophet Muhammad's prohibition of interest. Like Jesus in the New Testament, Muhammad took action against the usurers of his time, who exploited their contemporaries by charging them exorbitant interest, sometimes well over 100 percent. Muhammad summarily prohibited charging interest unless something was provided in return. Since the 1970s, Islamic banks have sought to satisfy this requirement by offering their customers financial services on the basis of interest-free transactions
Wednesday, October 21, 2009
Volcker Fails to Sell a Bank Strategy
He wants the nation’s banks to be prohibited from owning and trading risky securities, the very practice that got the biggest ones into deep trouble in 2008. And the administration is saying no, it will not separate commercial banking from investment operations.
Down with the dollar
But if foreign investors are so concerned, why is the dollar’s decline not accompanied by a sharp rise in bond yields? One reason may be that the Federal Reserve has been buying so much of the year’s debt issuance, as part of its quantitative easing programme. That has helped to keep yields down.
Quick Overview
- Australia’s leading indicators rose 1.1% in August.
- YoY Chinas GDP rose 8.9% in Q3
- The pound rallies after the Bank of England says its policymakers voted 9-0 not to pump more money into the UK economy.
- Wells Fargo earned $2.6 billion in Q3 – a record
- Morgan Stanley earned $498 million in Q3
- The U.S. DOE said:
Supplies of crude oil rose 1.3 million barrels last week at 339.1 million barrels.
Supplies of gasoline fell 2.3 million barrels
Supplies of heating oil rose 300,000 barrels.
Refinery use rose from 80.9% to 81.1% of capacity.
Gasoline demand rose 4.2% YoY
Distillate demand fell 12.1% YoY.
- Demand for coal to generate electricity and make steel in China and India is expected to grow by 7% to 8% annually in the next five years, leaving the world "chronically" short of the fuel, the head of U.S. coal miner Peabody Energy Inc (BTU.N) said.
- Argentine farmers will plant a record 19 million hectares with soybeans this season, up from the previous high mark by 7%, the Buenos Aires Cereals Exchangesaid.
- They forecasts 2009-10 wheat production at 7.5 million metric tons. Down sharply from the five year average of 14.8 million tons
- YoY China's refined sugar production in September fell 57% to 14,000 metric tons, the National Bureau of Statistics said Thursday. From January to September, sugar output fell 13% YoY.
- (Spiegel) The European Union is funding ambitious programs aimed at monitoring human behavior in an effort to identify deviance and pick out potential terrorists. The implications for privacy are myriad.
Tuesday, October 20, 2009
Euro at $1.50 is 'disaster' for Europe Korea, Thailand, Taiwan, the Philippines, Indonesia and Russia have all been buying dollars to stem their currencies' rises. The effect is to perpetuate the imbalances that led to the credit bubble from 2004-2007 and ultimately caused the financial crisis. Reserve accumulation fuels asset booms because it creates a wash of liquidity and drives down global bond yields. Asia clearly needs to sharply revalue against the West to right the system.
Quick Overview
- U.S. Housing starts were at an annual rate of 590,000 -- up 0.5% MoM. Less than had been expected
- U.S. producer price index fell 0.6% in December and 4.8% YoY
- Canada kept its interest rate unchanged at 0.25%
- Canada’s leading indicators rose 1.1% in September
- To curb the upward climb of its currency, Brazil announced that it would impose a 2% tax on overseas purchases of stocks and bonds
- Construction output in the EU fell 0.5% MoM and 11.1% YoY.
- The global sugar deficit of 8.3 million metric tons in the 2009-10 period should reverse to a surplus in the 2010-11 period, said the general director of Kingsman, a Lausanne, Switzerland-based consultancy.
- Sugar content in cane has fallen to 5-6 percent from the usual 9 percent level in Uttar Pradesh, India's top producing state of the sweetener, according to a PTI story
- India's sugar production is expected to rise to 18 million metric tons (prev. 16-17) in 2009-10, according to an Indian government official inBrazil.
- Mexico's new 2009-10 sugar harvest is forecast to produce 5,168,188 metric tons, up 4.1% of semi-refined standard sugar, the National CaneSugar Growers Union said Tuesday.
- U.S. economist, Joseph Stiglitz, a Nobel laureate, said the risk of deflation is still a concern, despite signs of an economic recovery.
- Illy forecasts 2010-11 world coffee production at 145 million 60-kilgrambags, up from 132 million bags in 2009-10. Consumption in 2010 is pegged at around 135 million bags,leaving a 10 million bag surplus, said Illy.
- Russia harvested 98.8 million tons of grain as of Oct. 20, down 13.4 million tons YoY.
Monday, October 19, 2009
A sterling crash is a godsend
Politically, these countries face what options traders call "time decay". The longer it lasts, the worse it gets.
Quick Overview
- Agriculture production needs to expand by 70% through 2050, as the global population rises to 9.1 billion from 6.7 billion, Jacques Diouf, director-general at the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization said.
- Bernanke said Asian economies are leading the world economic recovery, but should focus on boosting consumption.
- Japan's tertiary index of services rose from 96.8 to 97.1 in August -- better than expected.
- British same-store sales rose 7.5% in September
- CWG - Nearly half of Brazil's wheat suffering major losses due to persistent rains this month. Brazil world's largest wheat importer (Arlan Suderman Farm Futures)
- Rain in Brazil is also delaying the harvest of sugarcane. Cazrnikow's director of research, Toby Cohen, said: "There simply will not be enough sugar to meet ongoing levels of demand. "Limits on supply require a forced adjustment of consumption. To this end it is clear that prices will need to move higher to ration demand."
- The USDA said that there were 10.474 million head of cattle on feed as of October 1st, up 0.6% YoY
- RBA: A “very expansionary setting of policy was no longer necessary, and possibly imprudent,” officials said
- Koyodo News reported that crude steel output in Japan in the April to September first half of fiscal 2009 fell by 29.6% YoY to 43.33 million tonnes, marking a 40 year low on a semiannual basis due to a plunge in demand.
- (Bloomberg) -- Burning coal to generate electricity in the U.S. causes about $62 billion a year in “hidden costs” for environmental damage, not including expenses related to global warming, the National Academy of Sciences said.
Friday, October 16, 2009
Quick Overview
- U.S. Industrial production rose 0.7% in September and was revised up 1.2% for August.
- The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index fell from 73.5 to 69.4
- YoY Canada’s consumer prices fell 0.9%
- YoY EU exports fell 20% in August
